Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.