A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
